Two Iranian warships about to transit Suez Canal

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Re: Two Iranian warships about to transit Suez Canal

Post by Janey on Wed Feb 16, 2011 11:24 am

There is no justification for Iran to deploy warships to the Mediterranean Sea, and if it does Israel will view the move as "a change in the situation -- and Israel will know how to deal with it," a senior Israeli official

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Re: Two Iranian warships about to transit Suez Canal

Post by Joe Bese on Wed Feb 16, 2011 11:25 am

So will Israel attempt to capture them, or just sink them?
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Re: Two Iranian warships about to transit Suez Canal

Post by Janey on Wed Feb 16, 2011 11:41 am

one is an MK-5 frigate, the other a supply vessel - believed to be carrying arms for Hezbollah

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Re: Two Iranian warships about to transit Suez Canal

Post by Janey on Wed Feb 16, 2011 11:43 am

Joe Bese wrote:So will Israel attempt to capture them, or just sink them?

I think the first plan would be to try and convince them to do a 180 and go back the way they came. If they refuse, anything could happen.

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Re: Two Iranian warships about to transit Suez Canal

Post by Lurker on Wed Feb 16, 2011 11:44 am

if they sink them, that would be the invitation for war for Iran, Hez etc..
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Re: Two Iranian warships about to transit Suez Canal

Post by Janey on Wed Feb 16, 2011 11:48 am

new WH spokesman says they are unable to comment at this time

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Re: Two Iranian warships about to transit Suez Canal

Post by Lurker on Wed Feb 16, 2011 11:48 am

Janey wrote:one is an MK-5 frigate, the other a supply vessel - believed to be carrying arms for Hezbollah
wow, so this could be possible more to this, than that simple training exercises which they claimed in january (what we talked on the other forum)
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Re: Two Iranian warships about to transit Suez Canal

Post by Janey on Wed Feb 16, 2011 11:51 am

Lurker wrote:
Janey wrote:one is an MK-5 frigate, the other a supply vessel - believed to be carrying arms for Hezbollah
wow, so this could be possible more to this, than that simple training exercises which they claimed in january (what we talked on the other forum)

they are still claiming it is that training exercise, but other countries are saying the supply shipped is filled with weapons

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Re: Two Iranian warships about to transit Suez Canal

Post by Lurker on Wed Feb 16, 2011 11:58 am

thanks Janey..

very dangerous situation right now...

---------
But would Isreal be so "dumb" to get lured into this provocation?

I mean, USA still stands firm behind Israel.. everyone knows that.. No one would think that could change easily..

But,.,. just some far-fetched thoughts.. what if some new cables on isreal/palestine/US leak....
mixed with that huge budget deficit of the US..... and the following demands of the people, investing that amount of money for US citizens/economy, instead of sponsoring Israel..

bye bye Israel, we can't afford you anymore

we can only help Saudi-Arabia

lol!
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Re: Two Iranian warships about to transit Suez Canal

Post by Janey on Wed Feb 16, 2011 12:24 pm

for those interested, the Frigate is the Alvand and the transport ship is the Kharg

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Re: Two Iranian warships about to transit Suez Canal

Post by FFR77 on Wed Feb 16, 2011 12:36 pm

Janey wrote:for those interested, the Frigate is the Alvand and the transport ship is the Kharg

Kharg? Sounds Klingon

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Re: Two Iranian warships about to transit Suez Canal

Post by Janey on Wed Feb 16, 2011 12:37 pm

FFR77 wrote:
Janey wrote:for those interested, the Frigate is the Alvand and the transport ship is the Kharg

Kharg? Sounds Klingon

I thought the same thing Smile

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Re: Two Iranian warships about to transit Suez Canal

Post by Babsi on Wed Feb 16, 2011 12:44 pm

OMG - there we go. I knew Israel WILL attack Iran soon, now they have a reason.
Meanwhile, the poor people there are trying to revolt against their Regime...and they might now get all blown away by the fierce Israeli Military.
This is not good Sad
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Re: Two Iranian warships about to transit Suez Canal

Post by Janey on Wed Feb 16, 2011 12:46 pm

further Israeli embassies evacuated and put on alert, fearing a joint Iran/Hezbollah terror attack

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Re: Two Iranian warships about to transit Suez Canal

Post by Janey on Wed Feb 16, 2011 12:51 pm

confusion as some outlets reporting that the vessels have permission to cross Suez, whilst others say the Egyptians are denying any request has been made.

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Re: Two Iranian warships about to transit Suez Canal

Post by Lurker on Wed Feb 16, 2011 12:56 pm

this better here or Hezbollah thread?

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The IDF stepped up its vigilance along the northern border and Israeli embassies went on high alert last weekend ahead of the third anniversary of the assassination of Hezbollah arch-terrorist Imad Mughniyeh.

Mughniyeh was killed by a car bomb in Damascus on February 12, 2008. He was Hezbollah’s chief of military operations and its liaison with the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. He was assassinated as he made his way to a celebration at the Iranian cultural center in the Syrian capital. Hezbollah and Iran blame the Mossad for his death.
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http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?id=208319
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Re: Two Iranian warships about to transit Suez Canal

Post by Babsi on Wed Feb 16, 2011 1:04 pm

Janey wrote:confusion as some outlets reporting that the vessels have permission to cross Suez, whilst others say the Egyptians are denying any request has been made.

That is not good - things are still chaotic here, I hope there's not some dumb workers in Suez who screw this up by making a wrong statement, or let ships pass without a permission. Although I don't know how that would be possible.

Have they already passed through Suez or not?
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Re: Two Iranian warships about to transit Suez Canal

Post by Janey on Wed Feb 16, 2011 1:09 pm

Babsi wrote:
Janey wrote:confusion as some outlets reporting that the vessels have permission to cross Suez, whilst others say the Egyptians are denying any request has been made.

That is not good - things are still chaotic here, I hope there's not some dumb workers in Suez who screw this up by making a wrong statement, or let ships pass without a permission. Although I don't know how that would be possible.

Have they already passed through Suez or not?

all I can get and what is on the wires is "any time now"

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Re: Two Iranian warships about to transit Suez Canal

Post by Babsi on Wed Feb 16, 2011 1:11 pm

Janey wrote:
Babsi wrote:
Janey wrote:confusion as some outlets reporting that the vessels have permission to cross Suez, whilst others say the Egyptians are denying any request has been made.

That is not good - things are still chaotic here, I hope there's not some dumb workers in Suez who screw this up by making a wrong statement, or let ships pass without a permission. Although I don't know how that would be possible.

Have they already passed through Suez or not?

all I can get and what is on the wires is "any time now"

Oh my goodness...if they pass...that will not be a good thing imo. I don't think Israel will show restraint this time.
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Re: Two Iranian warships about to transit Suez Canal

Post by Godzilla85 on Wed Feb 16, 2011 1:39 pm

Janey what are the chances this gets real bad real quick?

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Re: Two Iranian warships about to transit Suez Canal

Post by Babsi on Wed Feb 16, 2011 1:46 pm

Godzilla85 wrote:Janey what are the chances this gets real bad real quick?

I'm not Janey, but considering Israel vs. Iran, this could get real bad real quick....

But yes Janey, I'm also interested in your take, you have more experience and a better take on these things.

PS: Let me know if I should run for cover in Egypt too...I hope the won't start to entangle us in some type of confrontation...or for having let the ships pass through the Canal.
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Re: Two Iranian warships about to transit Suez Canal

Post by Aetius Romulous on Wed Feb 16, 2011 2:00 pm

So, on reflection I am considering this;

These are boats, and boats move slowly. The frigate has some speed but the cargo ship is by nature slower. For them to have a nefarious goal, that goal would have been set before each ship was armed and provisioned for that goal.

My best guess based on oil tankers using the rout from Hormuz to the canal is about 7 - 10 days at sea to make the transit from Hormuz, around the Saudi Peninsula, past Aden, up the red sea, and to the canal. These are the busiest shipping lanes on the planet and so they would have been in full view for a week by anybody who cared enough to look and be concerned.

Assuming the time from nefarious decision and the arrival at Suez, we can assume the passage of no less than a months time. A month ago the Middle East was its lazy old dysfunctional self. Thus, absolutely no chance that this has anything to do with current events, and has been in no way a secret to anybody.

During the summers crisis de jour when Israel was embroiled in fending off a flotilla of peaceniks, the Iranians had announced at that time that they would send ships to the area as their contribution to the general mayhem. This "crisis in Suez" is simply the trailing end of that decision methinks. A remnant of an old pot stirring action that has by dearth of slow ships landed in the middle of the latest.

Whats on the cargo ship? Prolly enough supplies to get two ships on a long journey out and back again after a period of diddling about to cause maximum discomfort.

It's not just bait, but old bait.

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Re: Two Iranian warships about to transit Suez Canal

Post by Swinburnian on Wed Feb 16, 2011 2:05 pm

it's noticeable that thte more agressive israeli comment came from lieberman, not barak. it's barak (and netanyahu) who will be making decisions here
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Re: Two Iranian warships about to transit Suez Canal

Post by Godzilla85 on Wed Feb 16, 2011 2:05 pm

Babsi wrote:
Godzilla85 wrote:Janey what are the chances this gets real bad real quick?

I'm not Janey, but considering Israel vs. Iran, this could get real bad real quick....

But yes Janey, I'm also interested in your take, you have more experience and a better take on these things.

PS: Let me know if I should run for cover in Egypt too...I hope the won't start to entangle us in some type of confrontation...or for having let the ships pass through the Canal.

Babsi I hope you stay safe where you are and that things are calming down and normalizing. I have great angst and fear over this Iranian provocation that it will in fact trigger an Israeli reaction with at the very least their jets buzzing over those ships and if those ships fire on the jets...then all bets are off.

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Re: Two Iranian warships about to transit Suez Canal

Post by FFR77 on Wed Feb 16, 2011 2:12 pm

Speculation:

From a regional political standpoint, a "managed" conflict (not a full scale war) with Israel might be a ploy by some of the regional governments to unite their peoples under a common banner against their common enemy. Face it, one of the only things that many of the people of the Arab countries can agree on is their mutual dislike for Israel. Stoking the fire a little bit with a managed conflict seems like a good way to quell some of the political unrest as the demonstrators put their differences aside and unite around their respective flags. Lose a couple of ships, declare a state of emergency, start mobilizing armed forces, sabre rattle, sabre rattle, incite a renewed sense of nationalism in your people and calm the home fires.

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